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Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics (American Interest Books)
- Used Book in Good Condition
A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future. Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios particularly those of low probability and high impact have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine. Blindside is organized into four main sections. Thinking about Strategic Surprise addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. The following two sections pinpoint the failures institutional as well as personal that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. In Pollyana vs. Cassandra, for example, James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook debate the future state of the world going forward. Mitchell Waldrop explores why technology forecasting is so poor and why that is likely to remain the case. In the book’s final section, What Could Be, internationally renowned authorities discuss low probability, high-impact contingencies in their area of expertise. For example, Scott Barrett looks at emerging infectious diseases, while Gal Luft and Anne Korin discuss energy security. How can we avoid being blindsided by unforeseen events? There is no easy or obvious answer. But it is essential that we understand the obstacles that prevent us first from seeing the future clearly and then from acting appropriately on our insights. This readable and fascinating book is an important step in that direction.
Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics (American Interest Books)
Image by marsmet472
While it is usually more persuasive to be diplomatic rather than offensive, I tend not to care very much if the truth offends people either. Because ignorance is a choice, discerning fact from the false is also a choice, we need to value truth and fact, more than what people like or dislike.
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… marsmet472 .. It’s part of the hardwiring of men and it must be controlled.
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… “The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.”
― Charles Bukowski
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……..*****All images are coyprighted by their respective authors ……..
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… marsmet491 photo
www.flickr.com/photos/71902107@N03/8576126749/
the world … FSU News – Coverage of rape evidence a problem — Poppy Harlow waxed on (6:46 PM, Mar. 20, 2013) …item 2a / 2b.. Anonymous 2013 Steubenville Rape Case — What if this was your daughter? (Published on Jan 6, 2013) …
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… marsmet523 photo
www.flickr.com/photos/64540855@N07/8568034822/
STEUBENVILLE – "I made it as a joke," Pizzoferrato testified. " (MARCH 17, 2013) …item 2.. Steubenville rape case: — victim had been urinated upon (SUNDAY, MARCH 17, 2013, 5:29 PM) …
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… marsmet524 photo
www.flickr.com/photos/69462973@N08/8586079143/
"just fine" (August 14, 2012) … Steubenville teens describing how they did NOTHING — Silence: (23 March 2013) …
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… marsmet532 photo
www.flickr.com/photos/94585506@N05/8618706415/
Guerrilla Marketing … Letters to the editor (Apr 1, 2013) …item 2.. Former Shelter director Mel Eby felt forced into retirment — Eby, however, feels like a castaway. (Mar 30, 2013) …
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… marsmet473a photo …
www.flickr.com/photos/104178037@N08/10082196624/
Decatur, Illinois .. Beloved psychology professor outed as killer who murdered his family as a teen — ‘I feel comfortable with him,’ Grader said. (3 August 2013)
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… marsmet473a photostream … Page 1
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… marsmet551 photo …
www.flickr.com/photos/67538764@N04/8593142199/
Big Red Football … Who’s in Trouble Next in Steubenville? — The grand jury will convene around April 15. (MAR 18, 2013) …item 2.. Florida State groups bring attention to rape culture (Apr. 10, 2013) …
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…..item 1)…. Not all people, not all truth; but too often this is correct. …
… Penigma Blog Spot … penigma.blogspot.com/ …
A Penigma – A Mystery, Under A Pseudonym …
A Blog Dedicated To The Rational Discussion of Politics and Current Events …
While it is usually more persuasive to be diplomatic rather than offensive, I tend not to care very much if the truth offends people either. Because ignorance is a choice, discerning fact from the false is also a choice, we need to value truth and fact, more than what people like or dislike.
MONDAY, MAY 13, 2013
penigma.blogspot.com/2013/05/not-all-people-not-all-truth…
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img code photo … People hate the truth. Luckily the truth doesn’t care.
sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc1/374763_65361230466822…
Larry Winger
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POSTED BY DOG GONE AT 3:30 AM
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…..item 2)…. youtube video … Lenny Bruce – The Life and Crimes of … … No Minors Adults Only …
… 45:10 minutes …
www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8R4fZU3UG8
Wildhack65
Published on Sep 18, 2012
A radio documentary made back in 1997. Produced by Steve Shepherd & presented by Charles Shaar Murray. I spent two weeks in San Francisco and New York interviewing Lenny’s friends, lawyers and collaborators, then edited 25 hours of tape (and it was tape) down to around an hour of material and refined it with Charles (who delivered a great script as always). It was well received at the time but had a limited audience with just two airings on Radio 3. Enjoy. Steve Shepherd,
Category
Comedy
License
Standard YouTube License
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Lenny Bruce died on August 3, 1966.
Leonard Alfred Schneider (October 13, 1925 – August 3, 1966), better known by his stage name Lenny Bruce, was an American stand-up comedian, social critic and satirist.
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img code photo … Poster for Lenny Bruce’s last series performances
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/e/ed/Lenny_Bruce_…
Poster for Lenny Bruce’s last series performances, which took place at The Fillmore in San Francisco on June 24 and 25, 1966.
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